Forecast Last Updated at Friday, July 3, 2009 at 11:27AM

Great Way To Kick-Off The Holiday Weekend

Spectacular weather is set to get our Fourth of July weekend started in grand fashion, with plenty of sunshine and pleasant early-July temperatures. The Fourth looks good with partly cloudy skies and more nice temperatures. There will be a chance for showers mostly after dark, so right now most outdoor activities look safe. Sunday looks wet, so get out and enjoy today and Saturday if you can.

Friday Hi: 86 Lo: 61 Bright sunshine with a few afternoon clouds; More nice weather; NW wind 5-10 mph

Saturday Hi: 87 Lo: 66 A good deal of sunshine; More clouds overnight with maybe a late-night shower or t-shower; SW wind 5-10 mph

Sunday Hi: 83 Lo: 67 Lots of clouds; Showers & t-showers, mostly PM; SW wind 5-10 mph

Monday Hi: 84 Lo: 66 Mostly cloudy; Showers & thundershowers likely

Tuesday Hi: 87 Lo: 63 AM showers possible; Becoming partly sunny

Further Out

Wednesday - Scattered clouds; Nice weather to be outside; High in the upper 80s; Low in the mid 60s
Thursday - Partly cloudy; A bit more humid; High in the upper 80s; Low in the mid 60s

Forecast Discussion

High pressure holds today with another day of fine weather. Fourth of July weekend looks like a fifty-fifty proposition, with more good weather for the Fourth, but turning decidedly wetter on Sunday. We'll see low pressure developing over the central Plains on Saturday, connected to a developing frontal zone that will extend eastward into the Tennessee Valley. There will be a growing area of showers and thunderstorms spreading eastward from Missouri and Illinois, getting into Kentucky and Tennessee and then ultimately into NC on Sunday.

While the leading edge of some of these showers could sneak into the mountains and foothills late Saturday, most wet weather will hold off until late Saturday night and then through most of the day on Sunday. Sunday will probably turn out to be quite gray and rather wet. The rain could linger into early next week, before the front gets a shove to the south, leading to drier weather on Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

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Summer Rain Forecasts

I'm asked often about wording for summer shower and thundershower coverage. If we think no one in the region will see rain, we will not mention it in the forecast. If we think only single, renegade thundershower is possible (less than 20% coverage area), we'll generally leave it out of the forecast but mention in the discussion section (or possibility use language like "slightest chance", "stray", or "renegade"). If we think around 20 percent of the region will see rain on a given day, we'll include in the forecast box and use language like "slight chance", "isolated", or "small chance", etc. Widely scattered" indicates coverage of about 25 percent. "Scattered" generally means 30%-50% coverage. When about 50 percent of the region is expected to see rain, we'll use phrases like "good chance". When rain chances are in the 60-70 percent realm, a "likely" qualifier used, and above that, we don't use any particular qualification and just say "showers or thunderstorms". We generally do not use "percent chance of precipitation" in our forecasts--rather we try to focus on when, where, and how much. Isn't that what you really want to know? However, specificity like this in summer forecasts is very difficult. Last Wednesday, we had stations picking up 2" of rain on the same day when others only 20 miles away saw virtually no rain. Forecasting those kinds of specifics is impossible. Finally, words like "storm" (instead of "shower"), "severe", or "strong" indicate greater intensity of an event that may include heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, or hail.